By Paul R Salmon, FCILT
Introduction: A Shift in the Conversation on Support Costs
For decades, UK Defence has been exceptional at tracking certain elements of its spending. Procurement budgets, capital projects, and annual operating costs are scrutinised with military precision. But one area has historically been less understood — support costs.
That is starting to change. Recent initiatives within Defence Support and across the wider Ministry of Defence (MOD) are bringing fresh visibility to what it costs to keep platforms, systems, and capabilities running day-to-day and year-to-year. Yet even as the picture improves, a major gap remains: without Whole Life Cost (WLC) modelling, we risk seeing only part of the cost iceberg.
The question for UK Defence is no longer “Is WLC modelling useful?” — it is “Can we afford not to have it?” In a resource-constrained, high-readiness environment, the answer is increasingly clear: WLC is a need to have, not a nice to have.
What is Whole Life Cost (WLC) Modelling?
Whole Life Cost modelling is the systematic estimation and analysis of all costs associated with a capability or asset over its entire life — from the earliest concept phase to final disposal. It considers:
Acquisition: Design, development, and manufacturing costs. Operation: Fuel, consumables, crewing, and deployment expenses. Support & Maintenance: Planned servicing, unplanned repairs, spare parts, and software updates. Upgrades & Modifications: Technology insertions, obsolescence management, and configuration changes. End-of-Life: Decommissioning, disposal, recycling, or sale.
It’s not simply an accounting tool. Done properly, WLC is a decision support mechanism — a way of testing different options, identifying cost drivers, and choosing the solution that delivers the required capability at the lowest total cost.
Why WLC Has Been Seen as a ‘Nice to Have’
Historically, there are several reasons WLC hasn’t been universally applied in UK Defence:
Data availability: Without consistent support cost data, modelling felt speculative. This has often discouraged investment in the capability to do it well. Budget focus: Defence management has often been geared towards in-year budget control, rather than through-life cost optimisation. Project pressures: Teams under schedule pressure have prioritised delivering capability to the front line, sometimes at the expense of long-term cost planning. Skills gap: WLC requires analysts with specialist modelling expertise, as well as decision-makers who can interpret and act on the results.
The outcome? WLC has too often been treated as an optional extra, used for high-profile procurements or Treasury-mandated business cases, but not embedded in day-to-day support cost management.
Why WLC is Now a ‘Need to Have’
1. It answers the right question
Without WLC, cost discussions risk being dominated by in-year affordability. That’s important — but it’s only part of the story. WLC asks:
“What will it cost to own, operate, and support this capability over its entire service life — and what are the trade-offs?”
That perspective is essential for:
Avoiding false economy decisions (low acquisition cost, high running cost). Understanding cost per capability output rather than just cost per asset. Balancing short-term budget savings with long-term sustainment and readiness.
2. It’s already policy — at least on paper
The MOD’s JSP 507 (Investment Appraisal and Evaluation) and the Treasury Green Book both set out the requirement to consider whole-life costs for investment decisions. Defence Lines of Development (DLOD) approaches also emphasise through-life thinking.
The reality is that compliance varies, and WLC is not always applied consistently beyond initial business cases. As support costs come under greater scrutiny, the policy intent needs to match operational practice.
3. Support cost visibility is incomplete without it
Defence’s support cost analysis is improving, but it still faces challenges:
Some costs are hidden in broader budgets. Mis-coding in financial systems means not all spend is accurately attributed. Support costs are often siloed by project or service, making like-for-like comparisons difficult.
WLC provides the single truth needed for cross-programme comparison, trade-off analysis, and prioritisation.
4. It’s a force availability enabler
Availability — the proportion of time a platform or system is ready for operational use — is the currency of Defence capability.
WLC can directly inform:
Optimal spares investment to maximise uptime. Maintenance strategies that balance reliability with cost. Upgrade timings that avoid support cost spikes from ageing equipment.
For example, WLC can reveal “support cost cliffs” — points where reliability drops and costs rise sharply. Anticipating these cliffs enables proactive intervention, avoiding both capability gaps and budget shocks.
5. It aligns the UK with international best practice
NATO allies, particularly the US Department of Defense, treat WLC as core to acquisition and sustainment. Joint projects, multinational procurement, and interoperability initiatives increasingly depend on shared, comparable WLC data.
Failing to embed WLC risks:
UK inputs being excluded from allied cost models. Missed opportunities for joint investment decisions. Reduced negotiating leverage with suppliers in multinational contexts.
The Cost of Not Having WLC
If Defence chooses not to invest in robust WLC modelling, several risks materialise:
Budget inefficiency: We may spend more over the life of a capability than necessary because we optimise for short-term savings. Reduced readiness: Lack of foresight on support cost drivers can lead to equipment shortages or reduced availability when costs spike unexpectedly. Weaker supplier negotiations: Without a clear through-life cost picture, industry may dictate sustainment terms rather than working to MOD-optimised solutions. Missed innovation opportunities: Technologies like predictive maintenance, AI-enabled logistics, and digital twins deliver most value when integrated with a WLC mindset.
Barriers to Adoption — and How to Overcome Them
If WLC is so valuable, why isn’t it universally used? Common barriers include:
Data quality: Inconsistent cost attribution, especially for cross-cutting services like fuel, spares, or depot maintenance. System integration: WLC modelling tools are not always linked to finance, maintenance, and inventory systems. Skills & culture: Not all decision-makers are trained to interpret and trust model outputs. Resource prioritisation: In a constrained environment, the modelling function itself must compete for funding.
Solutions include:
Establishing data stewardship roles in the Support Data Domain to ensure consistent cost capture. Linking WLC tools with digital engineering environments and support modelling platforms already in use. Making WLC training a standard part of commercial, engineering, and logistics career pathways. Embedding WLC into governance checkpoints so it becomes a normal part of decision-making, not an optional extra.
Case for Change: WLC as the Instrument Panel
Think of Defence capability as a complex aircraft. Annual budgets are the fuel gauge — they tell you how much you can fly right now. WLC is the instrument panel — it tells you if you have enough range to complete the mission, when you’ll need to refuel, and where maintenance will be required en route.
Without it, decision-makers are essentially flying blind over the long term.
Conclusion: Time to Move from Optional to Operational
The conversation in UK Defence is changing. We’re beginning to get a clearer picture of our support costs, but without WLC modelling that picture will remain incomplete. The shift we need is from occasional application to institutional adoption.
WLC isn’t just about numbers — it’s about readiness, sustainability, and strategic advantage. It empowers leaders to:
Make evidence-based trade-offs. Align with allies. Negotiate better with industry. Anticipate and manage through-life cost pressures.
In the coming years, Defence will face rising operational tempo, tighter budgets, and the need for closer industry collaboration. WLC modelling will be the compass that keeps us on course.
In a world where we can no longer afford to make decisions based solely on initial purchase price or short-term affordability, Whole Life Cost modelling is not a luxury. It is the foundation for delivering affordable, available, and sustainable Defence capability.
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