By Paul R Salmon FCILT, FSCM
In the high-stakes world of defence logistics, the ability to accurately forecast demand is more than a planning convenience — it’s a strategic imperative. Whether maintaining complex equipment fleets, deploying urgently needed spares, or ensuring readiness across multiple domains, demand forecasting is the quiet engine behind operational availability.
Yet, despite this, demand forecasting remains underutilised across Defence Equipment and Support (DE&S). Adoption rates for forecasting tools and practices are inconsistent, data remains siloed, and forecasts are too often based on gut feel rather than robust evidence. The result? Missed availability targets, unspent budgets, urgent buys, and lost opportunities for operational advantage.
If DE&S is to deliver support at the speed of relevance, then demand forecasting can no longer be optional. It must become business-as-usual. This article sets out a clear, structured approach to improving forecasting adoption across DE&S — turning it from a patchy practice into a professional discipline.
The Case for Change: Why Forecasting Matters
Forecasting in a defence context is not just about predicting how many bolts or batteries we might need. It is the critical first step in ensuring that the right item is at the right place, at the right time — and at the right cost. Without it, supply chains become reactive, inefficient, and prone to failure under stress.
In DE&S, poor forecasting has wide-reaching consequences:
In-year budget underspend due to a lack of forward demand visibility Stockouts or overstocking of critical components Costly last-minute procurement, sometimes via Urgent Operational Requirements (UORs) Lost trust from front-line commands and operational units Weak decision-making at support boards, capability reviews, and investment panels
And most crucially: a degraded ability to assure equipment availability.
Forecasting isn’t a spreadsheet exercise — it’s operational resilience in numeric form.
In-Year Operating Plans: Where Forecasting Meets Funding
A key reason why forecasting must be embedded within DE&S is its direct link to In-Year Operating Plans (IYOPs).
IYOPs are the backbone of short-term planning across DE&S Delivery Teams. They outline what will be procured, repaired, delivered, or consumed within the financial year. Critically, they are also used to justify funding drawdowns and project approvals.
Without a reliable demand forecast underpinning them, IYOPs become speculative, resulting in:
Budget allocations based on outdated assumptions Mid-year budget rebalancing that disrupts support delivery Fragmented planning across inventory, engineering, and commercial functions
Forecasting, therefore, must be the foundation of IYOP development — not a bolt-on.
Ten Must-Do Actions to Improve Forecasting Adoption in DE&S
1. Mandate Forecasting as a Core Function, Not a Side Task
Forecasting must become a formal requirement across DE&S planning processes. This means:
Requiring forecast data to underpin all IYOPs and support strategy submissions Making forecasting a non-negotiable step in spares planning, repair scheduling, and procurement Treating forecast quality as a performance metric — not just quantity
2. Upskill the Workforce in Forecasting Principles
Lack of forecasting capability is a core barrier to adoption. Many staff — particularly those new to inventory or commercial roles — simply don’t feel confident producing or interpreting forecasts.
To address this:
DE&S should roll out training on forecasting methods, from basic historical averaging to more advanced statistical and AI-based techniques. Forecasting should be included in core learning pathways for all roles in inventory, support, and engineering. A network of “forecasting champions” should be created to support local delivery teams and embed good practice.
The goal: forecasting becomes a core professional skill, not a niche specialism.
3. Move to a Central DE&S Forecasting Team – In Line with Civilian Best Practice
Most leading commercial organisations — from FMCG to automotive — now rely on a centralised demand forecasting function. These teams are responsible for producing high-quality, standardised forecasts, supported by data science, domain knowledge, and tool expertise.
DE&S should follow suit by:
Creating a Central Forecasting Team (CFT) to produce, assure, and manage forecasts across all platforms and categories Embedding CFT liaisons into Delivery Teams to ensure local context is incorporated Ensuring the CFT is responsible for forecast accuracy tracking, model maintenance, and continuous improvement
Benefits of this approach include:
Consistency of methodology and tools Improved accuracy through specialisation and data centralisation Reduced duplication across Delivery Teams Faster response to changes in operational tempo or funding availability
This shift would professionalise forecasting across DE&S and bring us in line with proven civilian supply chain models.
4. Integrate Forecasting into Existing Workflows
Forecasting must be frictionless. If it feels like a bolt-on or extra burden, it won’t be adopted. DE&S should:
Integrate forecasting modules directly into the IYOP toolset and ERP platforms Prepopulate forecast templates using live feeds (e.g., usage data from MJDI, repair rates from JAMES, and lead times from CRaFT) Develop simple dashboards to visualise forecast data and enable better decision-making
Forecasting should be something the system helps you do — not something you do to the system.
5. Automate the Baseline, Humanise the Exceptions
Automation can solve the adoption burden for the bulk of demand. For the 80% of inventory that follows predictable usage patterns, DE&S should:
Use AI and machine learning to generate auto-forecasts based on historical demand and reliability data Link automated forecasts to warehouse replenishment and repair planning Free up human experts to focus on complex, high-risk, or emergent demands (e.g., rapid capability insertion, obsolescence scenarios)
This division of labour maximises efficiency while retaining professional oversight where it matters.
6. Track and Report Forecast Accuracy
What gets measured gets managed. DE&S currently lacks a standardised way to assess the quality of forecasts. This must change.
A centralised dashboard should be developed to:
Track forecast accuracy (e.g., MAPE, forecast bias) across all categories and platforms Flag high variance forecasts for review Connect forecast error to IYOP variance, availability impact, and urgent buys
Transparency is key. Forecast performance should be visible from the front line to the investment board.
7. Link Forecasting to Operational Outcomes
Forecasting must be connected to why it matters — operational availability. This means:
Demonstrating how inaccurate forecasts lead to availability drops, urgent buys, or operational delays Building use cases that show how good forecasting improved readiness (e.g., spares available pre-deployment) Including forecasting impact in After Action Reviews and availability reporting
This elevates forecasting from a technical task to a strategic enabler.
8. Align Roles Across Inventory, Engineering, and Commercial
Forecasting fails when it is done in isolation. Demand is shaped by multiple factors — platform reliability, usage tempo, lead times, obsolescence — that sit across functions.
DE&S should:
Set up cross-functional planning reviews to co-own forecast assumptions Require engineering to share failure rates, obsolescence curves, and usage expectations Require commercial to feed in supplier capacity, minimum order quantities, and contract constraints
Forecasting must be a shared responsibility — and a shared outcome.
9. Reframe Forecasting as Strategic Advantage
There is still a perception in parts of the organisation that forecasting is a “backroom” task. That must change. Forecasting should be reframed as:
A tool of operational advantage — especially in contested, coalition-led, or expeditionary contexts A contributor to readiness, resilience, and affordability A signal of professional maturity across the DE&S enterprise
Forecasting isn’t just support — it’s strategy.
10. Make Forecasting a Leadership Priority
No transformation will succeed without senior buy-in. Forecasting must be on the leadership agenda.
That means:
Including forecasting as a requirement in all IYOP, Category Strategy, and Business Case templates Holding Delivery Teams accountable for forecast accuracy and adoption Including forecasting performance in team scorecards and Portfolio reporting
Forecasting adoption must be led from the top — and lived from the front line.
Conclusion: Forecasting Is the Foundation of Readiness
Defence support is becoming faster, more dynamic, and more contested. Forecasting is no longer a back-office exercise — it is the front end of resilience.
DE&S must treat demand forecasting as a core professional capability. This means embedding it in every IYOP, upskilling the workforce, automating where possible, aligning roles across functions, and linking it directly to readiness outcomes.
And crucially, it means moving towards a centralised DE&S forecasting function, modelled on the best of civilian supply chain practice — where accuracy is a profession, not a part-time task.
If we want to move from reactive to predictive, from waste to efficiency, and from guesswork to assurance — then forecasting must lead the way.
It’s not a luxury. It’s a must-do.
Author:
Paul Salmon FCILT is the Chair of the CILT Defence Forum, Lead Data Steward at DE&S, and a strong advocate for professionalising defence logistics through data-driven decision-making and cross-functional collaboration.
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