By Paul R Salmon FCILT, FSCM
In military and commercial supply chains alike, the instinct to stockpile runs deep. Faced with disruption, uncertainty, and pressure to deliver, organisations often reach for a simple solution: order more, pile it high, and hope for the best.
It feels safe. It looks robust. But the truth is stark: stockpiling creates fragility. It drains resources, slows responsiveness, and lulls organisations into a false sense of security. In a world of contested logistics, geopolitical shocks, and volatile demand, resilience requires something far more sophisticated.
This is why inventory optimisation has become one of the defining challenges for supply chain leaders today.
🌍 Why Stockpiling Doesn’t Work
Stockpiling might buy time in the short term, but it brings hidden risks that weaken your supply chain over time:
📉 Obsolescence: In Defence, critical spares often expire unused, creating a cycle of waste and re-procurement. In commercial sectors, trends and technologies move so fast that today’s stock can be tomorrow’s write-off. 💷 Capital Lock-Up: Every pound, dollar, or euro tied up in inventory is one that can’t be invested in capability, innovation, or people. 🐌 Reduced Agility: Massive stockholdings create inertia. When conditions change, it’s harder to pivot and harder to redeploy resources quickly. 🌱 Sustainability Risks: Surplus stock means more emissions from storage and disposal, undermining Net Zero ambitions.
True resilience isn’t about hoarding. It’s about building supply chains that are dynamic, data-driven, and responsive to change.
🚨 Why Optimisation Matters Now
Today’s environment demands a smarter approach:
Defence faces adversaries capable of targeting logistics directly. The days of guaranteed access to global supply chains are over. Industry operates in a world of disrupted shipping lanes, fluctuating demand, and rising customer expectations. Across sectors, budgetary and environmental pressures mean the cost of “just-in-case” stockholding is no longer sustainable.
Modern supply chains need precision, not excess.
🛑 Why Organisations Resist
So why aren’t more organisations embracing inventory optimisation?
🪖 The Comfort of More In Defence, commanders and engineers often equate more stock with mission readiness. In commercial settings, sales and operations teams push for “just-in-case” orders to avoid the pain of stockouts. ❌ Fear of Failure Stockouts are visible and painful; overstock is invisible – until the write-offs begin. Leaders fear the reputational and operational risk of “getting it wrong”. 📊 Data Distrust Poor forecasting, outdated systems, and incomplete data make planners wary of relying on optimisation tools. 🏢 Siloed Incentives Finance wants to cut stock. Operations wants to increase it. Sustainability teams want to reduce waste. Without alignment, nothing changes.
✅ Building True Resilience
Moving from stockpiling to optimisation isn’t easy, but it’s essential. Here’s how to do it:
🔍 Understand Criticality Not all stock is equal. Focus on what’s mission-critical or revenue-critical and build smart buffers around those items. 📈 Invest in Forecasting and Data Better demand prediction and lead-time visibility allow dynamic adjustment of stock levels. AI and ML tools can help – but only with clean, trusted data. 🔄 Increase Supply Chain Flexibility Diversify suppliers, shorten lead times, and build strategic relationships to reduce dependency on warehouse walls. 🛠️ Empower Planners Equip teams with the tools and authority to make evidence-based decisions, rather than relying on gut feel or historical practices.
🪖 Defence Example: From Piling to Precision
In Defence, the stakes are high. During recent operations, some forces found that despite extensive stockpiles, critical components were still unavailable at the point of need. Meanwhile, millions were written off in expired or obsolete stock.
Shifting to data-driven optimisation has helped some programmes reduce inventory by 20–30% while improving availability and readiness.
This isn’t about doing more with less. It’s about doing what’s right.
🌱 A Better Future for Supply Chains
The warehouse of the future isn’t overflowing. It’s:
Streamlined. Data-driven. Agile. Resilient.
The supply chains that succeed in the coming decade won’t be those with the biggest stockpiles. They’ll be the ones that can sense, respond, and adapt faster than the competition – or the adversary.
🔥 The Takeaway
Stockpiling is fragility disguised as resilience.
The challenge for leaders is to shake off the comfort of “more” and embrace the discipline of optimisation. It’s not easy. It requires courage, collaboration, and a willingness to trust data over instinct.
But in a world where disruption is the only constant, it’s the only path to true resilience.
Would you like me to:
✅ Add real-world Defence and commercial case studies (e.g. Typhoon spares optimisation, Amazon vs Toys“R”Us inventory collapse)?
✅ Create a visual version for a slide deck or LinkedIn post with the same narrative?
✅ Or rewrite this as a more provocative “thought leadership” piece for CILT Focus or SCC with stronger calls to action?
Which format should I prepare next?
