By Paul Salmon FCILT,FSCM
Introduction
Fuel is the bloodstream of both modern militaries and global commerce. It powers aircraft, ships, tanks, convoys, drones, and generators. It moves freight, sustains economies, and enables entire supply chains. Without it, operations stop, campaigns fail, and businesses falter.
But while its importance is obvious, the management of fuel is anything but straightforward. The quantity, type, distribution, and resilience of fuel supply chains vary wildly depending on demand, infrastructure, and geopolitics. Forecasting these dynamics is one of the most complex challenges logisticians face.
That is where fuels modelling comes in. By combining data-driven forecasting, scenario planning, and supply chain simulation, fuels modelling enables planners to ensure that the right fuel, in the right place, at the right time sustains operations. In military settings, it can mean the difference between mission success and paralysis. In commercial contexts, it can make or break competitiveness.
This article explores the complexities of fuels modelling, drawing lessons from history, contemporary operations, and civilian industries — before outlining how Defence and business can prepare for the fuel supply chain challenges of the future.
Why Fuels Modelling is Inherently Difficult
1. Volatile Demand
Unlike predictable commodities such as uniforms or rations, fuel demand fluctuates dramatically.
Military: Demand surges during high-tempo operations, exercises, or humanitarian deployments. It can collapse during peacetime or training pauses. Commercial: Airline demand shifts with passenger volumes, economic cycles, and even volcanic ash clouds. Trucking fleets spike demand in holiday seasons but run leaner in downturns.
2. Multiple Fuel Types
Military: Aviation fuel (JP-8), marine diesel, petrol, kerosene, specialist lubricants, and increasingly synthetic and biofuels. Civil: Diesel, petrol, LNG, jet fuel, hydrogen, and electricity all compete. Each has its own storage, handling, and shelf-life constraints — creating a web of overlapping supply chains that must be modelled holistically.
3. Storage and Shelf Life
While crude oil is relatively stable, refined fuels degrade. Jet fuel absorbs moisture. Biofuels can separate. Additives may expire. Storage tanks, pipelines, and pumps require maintenance. Fuels modelling must account for time-decay as well as volume.
4. Infrastructure Dependence
Fuel supply is only as strong as its infrastructure. Pipelines, refineries, tank farms, and transport fleets are all vulnerable to breakdown, attack, or cyber interference. Modelling must capture these physical and digital choke points.
5. Global Market Exposure
Fuel prices and availability are shaped by geopolitics, OPEC quotas, environmental policy, and conflict. Defence forces are often price-takers in markets dominated by civilian demand, as seen when militaries struggled to source PPE and diesel during COVID-19.
What Fuels Modelling Involves
Demand Forecasting Estimating usage across scenarios: peacetime training vs. surge conflict vs. humanitarian relief. Integrating consumption rates of vehicles, aircraft, and power generation. Supply Chain Simulation Mapping refinery, pipeline, and transport routes. Identifying bottlenecks and alternative nodes. Scenario Planning Running “what-ifs”: a port closure, an airfield fuel farm destroyed, sanctions cutting off imports. Stress-testing resilience under contested logistics. Resilience Modelling How long can operations last if a depot, pipeline, or refinery is lost? What redundancy exists in allies’ or partners’ infrastructure? Sustainability Analysis Measuring carbon emissions and efficiency. Modelling the impact of adopting synthetic fuels, hydrogen, or electrification.
Case Studies
1. NATO and the Cold War Stockpiles
During the Cold War, NATO planners recognised fuel as the linchpin of deterrence. They built the Central Europe Pipeline System (CEPS), a 5,000-km network of pipelines, storage facilities, and pumping stations capable of supplying millions of litres per day. Fuels modelling focused on:
How long stockpiles could last if Soviet forces severed supply lines. The resilience of dispersed tank farms against attack. Surge demand in high-intensity conflict scenarios.
The CEPS remains operational today, serving both military and civilian customers — a lasting example of integrated fuels modelling and infrastructure.
2. The Falklands War (1982)
The Royal Navy’s task force sailed 8,000 miles to reclaim the islands. The greatest challenge was not just ammunition or food, but fuel. Every warship, aircraft, and support vessel consumed vast quantities daily. Success hinged on precise modelling of:
Replenishment-at-sea schedules. Tankers had to rendezvous at precise points and times. Burn rates of aircraft and ships. Aircraft sorties consumed fuel at unpredictable rates, complicating demand. Risk of attrition. The loss of even one tanker could have crippled the operation.
The campaign highlighted that fuel was the critical constraint in force projection, more so than weapon stocks.
3. Iraq and Afghanistan
In both conflicts, forward operating bases relied on diesel for vehicles, generators, and water purification. Fuel convoys became a major vulnerability:
In Afghanistan, up to 70% of logistics convoys were fuel. These convoys were high-value targets, leading to heavy casualties. Fuels modelling here balanced: Consumption vs. convoy risk. Alternative energy solutions. Hybrid power, solar, and energy efficiency programmes were introduced to cut demand.
The lesson was stark: reducing demand through modelling and efficiency saves lives.
4. Civil Aviation
Airlines operate some of the most sophisticated fuels models in the world.
Tankering: Carrying extra fuel from airports where prices are lower, even if it increases weight. Hedging: Buying fuel in advance at fixed prices, based on forecast models. Efficiency optimisation: Tracking burn rates for each aircraft type and route.
These practices save billions but depend on models that integrate economics, engineering, and geopolitics.
5. Ukraine (2022–present)
A defining feature of the war has been the struggle to supply diesel to Ukrainian ground forces. Russian strikes on refineries and depots forced dispersal and concealment. Fuels modelling has been used to:
Forecast demand for dispersed units. Re-route supplies through Poland and other NATO states. Prioritise high-value assets (artillery, air defence) over general consumption.
Here, fuels modelling is literally shaping the tempo of operations.
Civilian Sector Lessons for Defence
Retail and FMCG
Retailers treat fuel as both a cost driver and a service constraint. Rising diesel prices can squeeze margins or even collapse just-in-time delivery models. Companies model fuel impact down to SKU level.
Healthcare
Hospitals depend on fuel for backup generators. Modelling ensures they can operate through outages or disasters. COVID-19 revealed how vulnerable oxygen and fuel supply chains were — sparking reforms in resilience modelling.
Automotive
The semiconductor crisis showed that a single component could halt production. In fuel terms, automakers now model the impact of electrification, hydrogen, and carbon pricing on long-term competitiveness.
The Future of Fuels Modelling
Integration with Digital Twins Real-time digital twins of fleets and depots allow simulation of consumption under changing conditions. AI-Enhanced Forecasting AI can merge satellite imagery, climate data, and market information to predict disruptions before they happen. Alternative Fuels and Energy Transition As Defence experiments with synthetic fuels, hydrogen, and hybrid systems, models must adapt to supply chains that do not yet exist at scale. Carbon Accountability With Net Zero policies, fuels models must now track not just litres but emissions. Military planners must balance readiness with sustainability targets. Resilience Over Efficiency Efficiency has dominated for decades. In contested logistics, redundancy, stockpiles, and diversification will matter more. Fuels modelling must reflect this shift.
Conclusion
Fuels modelling is no longer a niche technical exercise. It is a strategic enabler of readiness, resilience, and credibility.
For militaries, it determines whether aircraft can fly, ships can sail, and armies can move. For businesses, it shapes profitability, service reliability, and sustainability reputation.
The history is clear: campaigns are won and lost on fuel. The Cold War pipelines, Falklands tankers, Afghan convoys, and Ukrainian diesel dispersal all prove the point.
Looking forward, fuels modelling will grow more complex as climate change, energy transition, and geopolitical fragmentation reshape supply. Defence and industry alike must invest in predictive analytics, scenario planning, and alternative energy models to ensure the bloodstream never runs dry.
Because whether in battle or business, one truth remains: without fuel, nothing moves.
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