By Paul R Salmon FCILT, FSCM
In today’s contested and complex operating environments, the agility and resilience of defence supply chains are as critical as the capabilities they support. Logistics is no longer a background enabler; it is a strategic asset and a potential vulnerability. Adversaries are actively seeking to disrupt the flow of materiel, and globalised supply networks are exposed to shocks ranging from geopolitical tensions to climate-driven events. Against this backdrop, Digital Twins are emerging as a transformative technology for defence supply chains, providing decision-makers with unprecedented foresight and control.
What Is a Digital Twin?
A Digital Twin is a virtual replica of a physical system that integrates real-time data, advanced analytics, and simulation models to mirror, predict, and optimise system performance. In the commercial sector, Digital Twins are already being used to model aircraft engines, factories, and urban infrastructure. In defence, their application extends to complex weapon systems, platforms, and—critically—supply chains.
By creating a dynamic model of the entire supply network, a Digital Twin allows logisticians and planners to test “what-if” scenarios, anticipate potential disruptions, and evaluate mitigation strategies before making real-world decisions.
Simulating Disruptions in a Contested Environment
In a conflict or crisis, supply chains become prime targets. Whether it is the loss of a critical supplier, a cyber-attack on logistics IT systems, or the closure of strategic chokepoints like the Suez Canal, disruptions can cascade through the network with devastating impact.
A supply chain Digital Twin enables planners to simulate these scenarios and quantify their effects on availability, readiness, and cost. For example:
Supplier failure: If a key component manufacturer in the Far East is compromised, how long before stockpiles are exhausted? What alternative sources can be brought online, and at what cost? Transport interdiction: If a shipping lane is blocked, can airlift assets be re-tasked to meet critical timelines? How does this impact carbon emissions and fuel consumption? Demand surges: In the event of unexpected operational demands, can inventory buffers and repair facilities scale quickly enough to maintain availability?
These simulations allow defence supply chains to move beyond reactive crisis management to proactive resilience building.
Optimising Readiness through Modelling
Readiness is the ultimate objective of defence logistics. A Digital Twin enables continuous monitoring and optimisation by:
Tracking leading indicators of risk, such as supplier financial health, inventory turnover, and transport capacity. Optimising stock levels based on probabilistic demand and lead-time variability, reducing both overstocking and stockouts. Aligning maintenance and resupply schedules with operational tempos, ensuring assets are available when and where they are needed.
Crucially, this is not about perfection but about trade-offs. A Digital Twin provides the insight needed to balance cost, speed, resilience, and sustainability in support of strategic objectives.
Challenges to Adoption in Defence
While the potential of Digital Twins is clear, implementation in defence is not without challenges:
Data integration: Defence supply chains span multiple organisations, security classifications, and legacy systems. Creating a single source of truth requires robust data governance. Modelling complexity: Defence systems and supply chains are highly complex and non-linear, requiring advanced simulation capabilities and skilled practitioners. Cultural change: Moving from deterministic planning to data-driven, probabilistic approaches requires a mindset shift across the logistics enterprise.
Addressing these challenges demands investment not only in technology but also in people and processes.
Towards a Digital Supply Chain Command Centre
Some militaries are already experimenting with the idea of a Digital Supply Chain Command Centre, where a live Digital Twin provides commanders with situational awareness and predictive insights. This vision combines real-time tracking, AI-driven analytics, and human expertise to deliver logistics as a true warfighting capability.
For the UK, embedding Digital Twins into defence logistics could support the Integrated Force 2030 concept, ensuring sustainment chains are as agile and resilient as the forces they support.
Conclusion: A Twin for Every Mission
In an era where the speed of disruption often outpaces the speed of response, Digital Twins offer defence logisticians a new paradigm: the ability to see, anticipate, and act in real time. By investing in simulation and modelling, defence supply chains can transition from brittle networks to adaptive systems that deliver readiness, even in the face of uncertainty.
As one senior logistician recently noted: “We cannot fight tomorrow’s wars with yesterday’s supply chains. Digital Twins are how we bring them into the 21st century.”
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