By Paul R Salmon FCILT, FSCM
Making informed choices in the earliest stages of a defence programme is one of the most critical—and most challenging—tasks for both operators and manufacturers. These early-phase decisions shape product lifecycle management, supportability, and cost-efficiency for decades. They influence everything from operational readiness to the total cost of ownership, yet are often made with incomplete or uncertain data.
In this environment, the ability to predict the impact of alternative strategies is essential. Traditional approaches, however, often fall short—providing insufficient quantitative insight to support meaningful trade-offs. This is where integrated logistics support (ILS) platforms, such as Systecon’s Opus Suite, can transform decision-making. By applying robust analytical models at the outset, stakeholders can ensure that performance, cost, and logistics requirements are optimised from day one, rather than being adjusted reactively once the system is in service.
The Early-Phase Challenge
The initial stages of a defence acquisition are characterised by uncertainty. Operational needs are typically clear—driven by specific capability gaps—but the detail of how the system will be supported is often vague. Compounding this, the technical solution may still be in development, with multiple design options in play.
This uncertainty matters because most of a system’s lifecycle costs are determined in the early phases. Once production begins, altering design parameters or logistics concepts becomes significantly more costly and complex. While later optimisations can yield benefits, the greatest leverage to influence affordability and readiness lies before the first unit is built.
From Intuition to Analysis
Experience and professional judgement are invaluable, but decades of procurement history show that structured analytical approaches consistently lead to better outcomes. Programmes relying solely on intuition or static spreadsheets often encounter:
Cost overruns due to underestimated sustainment requirements. Availability shortfalls caused by inadequate spares or maintenance structures. Inefficiencies in repair, replacement, and distribution strategies.
Opus Suite addresses these pitfalls by enabling decision-makers to model a system and its operating environment, even when technical specifications are still evolving. This allows for detailed simulation of design, maintenance, and sustainment strategies long before final decisions are made.
Example: Air Combat Capability Planning
For an air force evaluating a new fighter jet, early-phase questions might include:
How many aircraft are required to sustain mission tempo? What level of maintenance infrastructure is needed at each base? How will component failure rates affect operational availability? What is the optimal balance between higher acquisition cost and lower through-life cost?
With Opus Suite, analysts can model component reliability, logistics networks, and maintenance schedules to identify the most cost-effective combination of design and support solutions—before committing to production.
Embedding Integrated Product Support Early
A recurring procurement pitfall is treating sustainment as an afterthought—selecting platforms primarily on performance, only to discover later that support costs are far higher than anticipated.
Integrated Product Support (IPS) prevents this by ensuring supportability is embedded in design decisions from the outset. IPS frameworks—such as those defined in the ASD S-Series—provide a structured methodology for Logistics Support Analysis (LSA), covering:
Spare parts provisioning. Maintenance intervals and concepts. Repair facility locations. Personnel training requirements.
Opus Suite aligns seamlessly with IPS principles, enabling scenario-driven logistics planning. For example, when defining a naval maintenance concept, it can help answer:
Should maintenance be centralised at key bases, or distributed to multiple locations? What are the cost and readiness implications of “repair vs. replace” strategies? How will different logistics models impact fleet availability in varying deployment scenarios?
Case Study: Gripen Fighter Jet
The Gripen programme illustrates the power of early-phase sustainment planning. From the outset, the Swedish Air Force aimed to create a fighter that was not only a capable combat platform but also highly affordable and easy to maintain.
By applying life cycle cost (LCC) analysis early, the design team:
Simplified maintenance procedures. Reduced dependence on depot-level facilities. Designed for rapid turnaround in austere environments.
The result: one of the lowest cost-per-flight-hour metrics in modern fighter aviation—a direct outcome of embedding sustainment considerations from day one.
Conclusion
The early stages of a defence programme offer both the greatest challenges and the greatest opportunities. Decisions made here lock in most of the lifecycle cost and determine the ease—or difficulty—of sustaining operational readiness over decades.
While early decisions must often be made with incomplete information, data-driven modelling and IPS methodologies offer a structured way to manage uncertainty. Tools like Opus Suite allow decision-makers to test and refine procurement and sustainment concepts in a virtual environment, ensuring that choices are grounded in evidence.
By embracing this approach, defence programmes can achieve a balanced outcome—one that delivers capability, cost-efficiency, and readiness from the moment the system enters service, and for the entirety of its operational life.
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