By Paul Salmon FCILT,FSCM
Introduction
“For want of a nail, the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe, the horse was lost. For want of a horse, the rider was lost. For want of a rider, the battle was lost.”
This proverb, dating back to at least the 14th century, captures a truth that logistics professionals have known for centuries: it is often the smallest, least glamorous items that determine the success of the greatest enterprises.
In Defence supply chains, the same rule applies. Military planners devote vast attention to multimillion-pound platforms, complex maintenance schedules, and high-end precision weapons. Yet the decisive factor in operational readiness often comes down to the availability of commodity items — low-cost, high-consumption consumables such as gloves, batteries, filters, screws, washers, bandages, or fuel additives.
These “nails of modern warfare” are the lifeblood of the system. Their absence may appear trivial, but in reality it can paralyse entire units, ground aircraft, stall convoys, or halt medical treatment.
This article explores why commodity items pose such challenges, illustrates their strategic importance through historical and contemporary case studies, and considers how Defence can learn from civilian supply chains in retail, healthcare, and automotive sectors to strengthen resilience.
The Hidden Power of Commodity Items
1. Small but Critical
Commodity items tend to be low in unit cost but high in operational impact. An O-ring worth pennies can prevent a fighter jet from flying. A missing box of sterile gloves can stall a surgical theatre. A flat-pack tent pole can disrupt an entire forward medical unit.
2. Ubiquitous Across the Force
Unlike platform-specific spares, commodity items cut across domains. Batteries power radios, sensors, and night-vision goggles. Filters are needed in everything from vehicles to water purification systems. Packaging and pallets move every supply type. Their absence ripples across the system.
3. Hard to Prioritise
Because commodity items are inexpensive and procured in high volumes, they are often deprioritised in strategic discussions compared to “big ticket” equipment. Yet the systemic risk they carry is profound.
Historical Parallels
Napoleon’s Army and the March on Moscow
One of the most famous logistic collapses in history occurred in Napoleon’s 1812 campaign in Russia. While popular accounts focus on the winter cold and Russian resistance, historians note that a decisive factor was the lack of basic footwear. Soldiers marched hundreds of miles without adequate shoes, leading to frostbite, disease, and desertion. A failure of commodity supply — leather, nails, soles — contributed as much to defeat as battlefield losses.
The American Civil War
The Union army, with superior industrial capacity, managed to provide shoes, uniforms, and food in abundance. The Confederate army frequently failed to supply its soldiers with boots, leading to desertions and reduced fighting capability. Commodity shortages, not just weapon shortages, tilted the balance of endurance.
Second World War — Fuel and Packaging
In World War II, Allied logisticians found that packaging was as critical as ammunition. Poorly packaged rations and medical supplies spoiled en route across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, German operations frequently stalled not for lack of tanks, but for lack of spare tyres and fuel cans.
The lesson is consistent: great powers stumble not because of big platforms, but because of small items.
Modern Defence Case Studies
The Falklands War (1982)
Operating 8,000 miles from home, UK forces faced severe strain on consumable supply chains. Commodities such as field kitchen consumables, tent equipment, and medical spares became friction points. While ships and aircraft dominated the headlines, on the ground it was the shortage of everyday consumables that complicated sustainment.
Iraq and Afghanistan
Troops repeatedly reported shortages of bottled water, batteries for radios and night-vision goggles, and protective eyewear. In some cases, vehicles worth millions were grounded for lack of a £1 filter. The paradox was stark: Defence could project a vast force across continents but struggled to provide enough basics.
Ukraine (2022–present)
Media attention highlights HIMARS, drones, and long-range artillery. Yet military briefings consistently emphasise the fragility of supply in diesel, tyres, and packaging for ammunition. Ukrainian logistics have innovated in sourcing and repurposing civilian commodity supply chains to fill gaps. Commodity availability is shaping operational tempo.
Why Defence Struggles with Commodity Items
Forecasting Blind Spots Defence demand forecasting is traditionally strongest where there is historical usage data (e.g., platform maintenance). Commodity usage, however, is volatile — dependent on climate, tempo, and casualty rates. Historical data is often a poor predictor. Procurement Priorities Major platform contracts dominate attention and funding. Commodity contracts are fragmented and rarely strategic. Procurement cycles often fail to secure resilient long-term supply for consumables. Shelf Life and Storage Many commodity items expire or degrade (medical consumables, batteries, reagents). Stockpiling leads to waste, but just-in-time procurement risks shortage in crises. Global Competition Defence is a niche buyer compared to industries like healthcare or consumer electronics. In crises (COVID-19 PPE, semiconductor shortages), Defence is a weak competitor against civilian demand. Low Visibility Because commodity items are cheap, they often receive less visibility in inventory management systems. This “low value = low attention” mindset hides their true operational importance.
The “Nail Effect” in Modern Supply Chains
The “Nail Effect” describes the disproportionality between cost and consequence: the smaller and cheaper an item, the more likely it is to halt a high-value activity if it is absent. In military operations, this is amplified by the zero-tolerance environment: a missing filter, bandage, or cable is not merely inconvenient; it is often mission-critical.
Civilian Comparisons
Retail and FMCG
Retailers understand that low-value SKUs (bags, labels, shelf-ready packaging) can be the bottleneck that halts store replenishment. Many firms have built resilience by dual-sourcing, investing in packaging optimisation, and maintaining pooled inventories.
Healthcare
Hospitals experience the same “nail effect.” Shortages of gloves, syringes, or IV bags can force postponement of entire surgical lists. COVID-19 demonstrated that commodity fragility in PPE and oxygen was as strategically dangerous as ventilator shortages.
Automotive
The automotive industry offers a modern case study in the semiconductor crisis. While semiconductors are not “cheap,” they illustrate how one missing component — often worth less than 2% of a vehicle’s cost — can halt entire production lines. To mitigate, firms are rethinking supplier diversification and stockpiling for key commodities.
These industries show Defence that commodity resilience must be elevated to the same strategic level as platform availability.
Towards Solutions
1. Predictive Modelling and AI Forecasting
Use data from multiple domains (climate, tempo, epidemiology) to anticipate commodity demand. For example, forecast bottled water usage from climate models or predict PPE consumption from simulated casualty scenarios.
2. Pooled and Rotational Stockpiles
Establish shared commodity stockpiles across alliances (NATO, 5 Eyes) or with civilian systems. Rotate consumables through national health systems or commercial partners to avoid waste.
3. Strategic Supplier Partnerships
Treat suppliers of gloves, filters, or batteries as strategically as those of missiles or aircraft engines. Long-term framework agreements guarantee priority supply during crises.
4. Digital Visibility
Implement control tower solutions for real-time visibility of commodity inventories, expiry dates, and consumption rates. AI can flag shortages before they become critical.
5. Professionalising Commodity Logistics
Defence logisticians should be trained to treat commodity items as strategic enablers. Accreditation and CPD programmes should highlight commodity resilience alongside traditional maintenance planning.
Reframing the Value Equation
Defence must challenge the false economy of neglecting commodity items. A £1 battery may halt a £10 million vehicle. A £5 filter may decide whether a convoy arrives on time. A £10 box of gloves may determine whether a surgeon can save a life.
The strategic cost of absence dwarfs the financial cost of provision.
Conclusion: The Horseshoe Still Matters
From Napoleon’s barefoot soldiers to modern supply chains stretched by pandemics and wars, the lesson is timeless: wars, campaigns, and missions fail not for want of sophistication, but for want of basics.
Commodity items are not the tail end of logistics; they are the bloodstream. They keep the system moving, the platforms running, and the personnel safe.
Defence must elevate commodity resilience from an afterthought to a central pillar of strategy. The stakes are too high for neglect.
For want of a battery, the drone was grounded.
For want of a filter, the convoy was stalled.
For want of a glove, the medic was exposed.
For want of a nail, the battle was lost.
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